earticle

영어

This paper empirically examines the impacts of exogenous fiscal shocks on employment creation in Korea using quarterly data over the period from 1994 to the second quarter of 2015. It is used 3 different types of fiscal expenditures, such as total, current, and capital expenditures, and 6 types of employment status, such as total employments, independent businessmen, total wage workers, regular employees, daily workers, and temporary employees. In addition, this paper uses a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model incorporating the identifying restrictions of institutional information and quarterly dependence, suggested by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). The model is composed of 3 variables, such as fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure, and employment. The analysis proceeds in estimating the structural impulse response functions and the multiplier effects of fiscal variables. The summary of the empirical results is as follows. First, the impacts of fiscal revenue shocks on the changes of the total employments are relatively small and statistically insignificant. However, the fiscal revenue shocks are negative and statistically significant impacts on the changes of daily workers and temporary employees, while the fiscal revenue shocks positively create the employments of regular employees. Second, fiscal expenditure shocks on the changes of the total employments show positive and significant impacts, which are consistent with the existing literature, and persist 4 quarters (i.e., 1 year). Specifically, the shocks of fiscal expenditure have a larger impact on the changes of daily workers’ employments than those of independent businessmen. This implies that the increase of fiscal expenditure have a limitation on the creation of high-quality employments. Third, the impacts of fiscal expenditure shocks of the employment creation depend on the types of expenditures. Specifically, the increases of current expenditure create mainly the employments of daily workers, while the increases of capital expenditure contribute to the employment creation on regular and temporary employees. In summary, the regression results suggest that the employment creation effects of fiscal expenditure shocks are relatively small and those impacts are mainly revealed on the changes of daily workers’ employments. This implies that fiscal expenditure shocks induce the crowding-out effects on private economic activity.

한국어

본 연구는 우리나라 1994～2015년 2분기의 분기별 자료를 이용해 재정지출(총재정지출, 경상지출 및 자본지출)의 충격이 종사상지위별 취업자 수의 변동에 미친 영향을 분석하였다. 구체적으로 본 연구는 재정수입, 재정지출 및 취업자의 수로 구성된 3 변수 SVAR 모형과 Blanchard and Perotti(2002)의 식별조건을 사용해 구조적 충격반응함수와 취업에 대한 재정 변수의 승수를 도출하였다. 재정수입 충격이 취업에 미치는 영향은 크지 않은 것으로 관측 되었지만, 재정지출 충격이 전체 취업에 미친 영향은 4분기(1년)까지 양(+)의 영향이 지속되는 것으로 추정되었다. 구체적으로 재정지출 증가의 효과가 자영업자의 취업에 비해 일용직 임금근로자에 대한 취업에 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 또한 재정지출 중에서 경상지출의 증가는 일용직 임금근로자를 중심으로 고용을 창출하는 반면, 자본지출의 증가는 상용직과 임시직 임금근로자의 고용창출에 기여한 것으로 관측되었다. 그러나 재정지출의 변동에 따른 취업효과는 단기에 집중되었는데, 이는 재정지출의 확대가 민간의 경제활동을 구축하는 효과를 통해 그 효과가 작게 나타날 수 있음을 반영하는 결과이다.