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Objectives: The aim of this study was to identify the factors that affect the developmental trajectory of problem drinking patterns among adult males using a latent growth model over time. Methods: This study was based on an analysis of the welfare panel data, which is a nationwide survey targeting 2,545 adult males over a four year period (2006 ~ 2009). The time-based changing patterns of problem drinking and the predictors of the changing function were identified by latent growth modeling using AMOS 2.0. A chi-square test (χ2-test) and a fitness index were selected to evaluate the goodness of fit of the test model. This study used an incremental fitness index, such as CFI, NFI and TLI and RMSEA as an absolute fitness index. Results: The increase rate of CAGE with a high initial year CAGE is expected to decrease with time but is expected to be high for a low initial year CAGE. The CAGE of elderly people decreased more than the CAGE of younger people. The initial year CAGE of heavy smokers was low. The CAGE for the people with chronic diseases increased. The initial year CAGE for people with a physical disability was high, whereas the CAGE for healthy people has decreased. The initial year CAGE for low-income families was high, but their CAGE was lower than that for average-income families. The initial year CAGE for people suffering from depression was higher than that for people who did not, and increased with time. Conclusion: Early detection and intervention of problem drinking are essential because of its tendency to continue once it has occurred. Problem drinking in adult males, particularly those with chronic diseases, physical disability, or low-income, is more serious. Therefore, drinking prevention should be considered as one of their health management programs.