earticle

영어

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated byapplying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. Forthe purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be dividedinto direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and theindirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk ofdistortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesianinferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed.One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and medianvalues of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the valuesuggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect thejudgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic riskwas about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, wasnot taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifyingthe radiological emergency planning and preparedness.