초록
영어
The purpose of this study is to set up optimal model to forecast technology patent information in four major industries in Korea. The major procedures are as follows: first, construct the model which extracts time-lag between input and output indicators on R&D activity; secondly, examine various models to forecast the values on technological information of patent by R&D; thirdly, extract the optimal forecasting model in each industry by testing the precision of values forecasted. The major findings are summarized as follows: Time-lag between input-output indicators showed quite different result in patent and utility applied, but in the case of patent granted there are time-lag of about 5 years. In general, the extrapolation model is more precise than the causal model in forecasting R&D outputs.