earticle

영어

Improving export resilience has become a pivotal factor in navigating ongoing transformations in the global trade landscape, which are characterized by escalating geopolitical conflicts, accelerated supply chain restructuring, and rising trade protectionism. It is therefore essential to advance the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade and consolidate its competitive position in the global trade system. From the perspective of informal institutions, this study investigates the mechanisms through which social capital influences export resilience, given that social capital, as a core carrier of informal institutions, plays a crucial role in reducing transaction costs and facilitating resource flow. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities covering the period 2009–2022, regional export resilience is measured through using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, which effectively quantifies recovery capacity and fluctuation adjustment capacity by separating the trend and fluctuation components of export growth. Social capital levels are measured using the entropy method, an objective weighting approach covering cognitive, bonding, and linking dimensions to avoid subjective biases. Empirical analyses are then conducted to examine the impact and underlying pathways of social capital on export resilience, with control variables such as openness, government intervention, and financial development included to enhance reliability. The results show that social capital significantly enhances export resilience, and this finding remains robust under stability tests that including core variable replacement and endogeneity control. The mechanism analysis further reveals that industrial upgrading and innovation capacity serve as key mediating mechanisms. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the influence of social capital varies considerably across regions at different levels of economic development. The effects of individual dimensions of social capital also exhibit differentiation. Based on these findings, this study proposes targeted policy recommendations, including fostering and guiding the development of social capital, providing differentiated support for various type of social capital, and establishing cross-regional experience-sharing mechanisms to enhance China’s overall export resilience.

중국어

提升出口韧性是应对当前全球贸易变局的关键举措，已成为实现中国贸易高质量发展 的重要着力点。当前全球地缘政治冲突加剧、供应链加速重构、贸易保护主义思潮蔓 延，中国出口贸易面临多重不确定性冲击。出口韧性作为抵御外部风险、稳定出口规 模、优化出口结构的核心能力，其提升直接关系到中国在全球贸易格局中的竞争力，更 是推动贸易从规模扩张向质量效益转型、实现高质量发展的关键抓手。本研究基于非正 式制度的视角，探索社会资本对出口韧性的影响机制。在制度经济学框架中，非正式制 度与正式制度相辅相成，共同作用于经济活动。社会资本作为非正式制度的核心载体， 能够有效降低交易成本、促进资源流动与信息共享，为经济主体应对外部冲击提供重要 支撑。相较于正式制度的显性约束与保障，社会资本对出口韧性的作用路径更具传导 性，相关作用路径尚未得到深入挖掘，本研究将深入剖析其作用路径，进而为破解出口 韧性提升难题提供理论支撑与实践思路。基于2009-2022年中国30省市面板数据，使用 HP滤波法测度中国各省市出口韧性，运用熵值法测度各省市社会资本水平，实证检验 分析了社会资本对出口韧性的影响机制。HP滤波法通过将出口额对数值分解为趋势项 和波动项，运用出口波动项与出口趋势项的比值衡量出口韧性，能有效衡量各省市出口 在外部冲击下的恢复能力与波动调适能力，为出口韧性的量化提供科学依据；熵值法结 合认知型、结合型及连接型社会资本多维度指标，通过客观赋权规避主观偏差，全面反 映区域社会资本积累水平。研究同时控制对外开放水平、政府干预、金融发展水平等变 量，以此确保实证结果的可靠性。研究发现：社会资本显著促进出口韧性的提升，通过 替换核心变量测度方法、控制内生性问题等稳健性检验，结论仍保持一致。产业升级和创新能力构成主要传导渠道。社会资本通过强化政企、银企间信任关系，搭建高效资源 整合网络，助力企业应对冲击，进而提升区域出口韧性。异质性分析表明在中国不同区 域，社会资本对出口韧性的影响存在明显差异；同时，社会资本的分维度影响也呈现分 化特征。经济发达地区社会资本积累深厚、网络体系完善，对出口韧性的促进作用更显 著；欠发达地区受产业基础薄弱、配套设施不足制约，社会资本正向效应未能充分释 放。分维度来看，认知型社会资本通过构建稳定的营商关系、形成共识性规范，赋能出 口韧性提升；结合型社会资本主要在同质群体内部产生并发挥作用，其显著排斥外界异 质主体，不利于跨领域提供互补资源，进而难以提升出口韧性；连接型社会资本则通过 为出口企业提供多元化、专业化的外部资源与服务支撑，增强其应对风险的能力。基于 上述结论，建议通过积极培育并引导社会资本发展、针对各类型社会资本发展提供支持 及跨区域发展经验共享等政策举措，实现提升中国出口韧性的目标。培育引导方面，强 化社会组织赋能效能，筑牢社会资本积累基础；分类支持方面，针对不同类型社会资本 制定差异化政策，完善网络平台建设、构建跨境经贸诚信共识；跨区域共享方面，推动 发达地区向欠发达地区分享培育和发展经验，实现区域协同与贸易高质量发展。