earticle

영어

This study investigates the impact of urbanization and climate change on the divergence between economic growth and social welfare. I report several main findings. I find that urban land per capita (ULPA) initially widens the GDP–GPI gap due to high infrastructure and congestion costs, but this effect reverses in the long term as benefits of lower density and improved residential environments accrue. In the case of per capita CO₂ emissions, welfare increases temporarily during periods of intense economic activity, but the effect reverses as accumulated environmental costs persist and ultimately enlarge the GDP–GPI gap. The share of manufacturing strengthens the growth-led divergence at first but, in the long run, shifts toward narrowing the gap through more stable employment and gradual income improvement. Income inequality consistently broadens the GDP–GPI gap across both time horizons, indicating a structural rather than temporary influence. Overall, the findings suggest that urbanization, industrial structure, and environmental liabilities interact to shape qualitative changes in sustainability. Achieving sustainable urban development therefore requires balanced land-use strategies, reductions in carbon emissions, and more equitable income distribution, together with the institutional use of the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) in policy evaluation.