earticle

영어

The purpose of this study is to develop a housing demand estimation model incorporating the concept of the de facto population, with a focus on Maengdong-myeon in Eumseong-gun. To achieve this, housing demand was estimated using three models—the traditional model, the district-based model, and the mobility-based model and the results were compared to identify the most suitable model for small and medium-sized local cities. The traditional model, based on the unit-rate method applied to industrial complexes, estimated a total demand of 7,302 housing units. However, this approach was found to be limited in its applicability to local urban contexts. The district-based model, which incorporates factors such as population trends, housing supply rates, industrial and regional development, land price fluctuations, and population mobility, estimated a demand of 3,831 units, reflecting the current conditions of local cities more accurately. Finally, the mobility-based model integrating the de facto population concept estimated demand at 4,292 units and was evaluated as the most appropriate model for areas experiencing population outflow and residential instability. The findings suggest that for local cities facing demographic decline, housing demand estimation should move beyond traditional approaches and instead incorporate the de facto population framework for greater accuracy and relevance.