earticle

영어

The South Korean coffee industry has seen rapid growth over the past two decades, becoming a key part of the nation’s food and beverage sector. In particular, the number of coffee shops in urban areas like Seoul has surged, reflecting the industry’s popularity among small business owners. Despite this expansion, empirical research on coffee shop survival remains limited, especially studies considering broader spatial conditions such as urban decline. This study examines how urban decline influences coffee shop survival in Seoul. Using administrative business license data, we analyze 1,745 coffee shops that newly opened during the single year of 2013, tracking their operational status through the end of 2019. Survival differences across neighborhoods are compared using Kaplan–Meier analysis, followed by a Cox proportional hazards model to explore spatial survival factors. Findings reveal that coffee shops in declining areas face significantly shorter survival durations and greater vulnerability to environmental pressures. Compared to restaurant-focused studies, coffee shops show greater spatial disparity in survival, highlighting the need to incorporate spatial vulnerability into small business policies and urban economic planning.