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영어

The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, which is a long and complicated evolutionary process. In the international landscape of strategic competition between China and the United States, the United States has weakened Russia’s overall strength through the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, through the Israel-Iran conflict and the Syrian civil war, it has cut off Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”, leaving Iran in a passive position where it can hardly take care of itself in the Middle East game. In East Asia, the United States hopes to establish a “mini-NATO in Asia” based on the quasi-alliance relationship among South Korea, the United States and Japan by strengthening its relations with South Korea and Japan, so as to confront China. With the initial formation of the confrontation framework between the trilateral relationship group among China, the DPRK and Russia in the north and the southern triangular group, a pattern of bloc confrontation with clear “Cold War” characteristics has emerged again on the Korean Peninsula. On June 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin and DPRK Chairman Kim Jong Un signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Cooperation in Pyongyang. The strengthening of the DPRK-Russia relationship has disrupted the original balance of power in the region between the “nuclear-armed DPRK” and “South Korea with modern conventional military forces and the United States providing extended deterrence”. This has enabled the DPRK to gain a “short-term relative advantage” in its confrontation with South Korea. And the DPRK, which has gained a temporary advantage, is more confident, bolder and more radical in the north-south game with South Korea (or the ROK-US-Japan group). This will undoubtedly increase the risk of accidental clashes on the Korean Peninsula and push the Korean Peninsula and even Northeast Asia to the brink of war. China’s stance on the issue of the Korean Peninsula has always been to adhere to the denuclearization of the Peninsula, to uphold peace and stability on the Peninsula, and to advocate resolving the Peninsula issue through dialogue and consultation. While the development of China-DPRK relations helps maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, it also faces some differences in opinions. The DPRK believes that an appropriate level of tension on the Peninsula is conducive to obtaining a larger international living space for itself, but this goes against China’s national security need to maintain peace and stability on the Peninsula. Against the backdrop of the strategic competition between China and the United States, the DPRK, as China’s strategic asset, is unlikely to be abandoned by China in the short term. Therefore, currently, China and the DPRK present a contradictory relationship where “cooperation” and “disagreements” coexist.

중국어

当今世界正值百年未有之大变局, 这是一个长期而复杂的演变过程。在中美战略竞争 的国际格局中, 美国通过俄乌战争削弱了俄罗斯的综合实力, 又通过伊以冲突、叙利亚内 战切断了伊朗的“抵抗之弧”, 破使伊朗在中东博弈中陷入自顾不暇的被动境地。在东亚, 美国期望通过强化与韩日两国的关系, 建立起以韩美日三角准同盟为基础的“亚洲版小北 约”与中国对峙。在中朝俄北方三边关系集团与南方三角集团对峙框架初步成型的情况 下, 韩半岛再次出现了明显带有‘冷战’性质的集团阵营对抗格局。2024年6月19日, 俄罗斯 总统普京与朝鲜金正恩委员长在平壤签署了《全面战略伙伴关系条约》。朝俄关系强化 破坏了该地区原有的‘拥核朝鲜’与‘拥有现代化常规军力的韩国及提供延伸威慑的美国’ 之间的力量均衡关系。使朝鲜在与韩国的对峙中获得了‘短时间的相对优势’。而取得暂 时性优势的朝鲜在与韩国（或者韩美日集团）的南北博弈中更有底气, 行为更大胆, 更激 进。这无疑会增加半岛地区擦枪走火的风险, 把韩半岛甚至是东北亚推向战争的边缘。 中国在韩半岛问题上的态度始终是坚持半岛无核化, 坚持维护半岛和平稳定, 主张通过对 话协商解决半岛问题。而中朝关系发展在维护半岛和平稳定的同时也面临着一些意见分 歧。朝鲜认为适度的半岛紧张局势有利于为自身获取更大的国际生存空间, 但却与中国 维持半岛和平稳定的国家安全需要相悖。在中美大国战略竞争背景下, 朝鲜作为中国的 战略资产短时间内不可能被中国放弃。所以现在的中朝两国呈现出一种“合作”与“分歧” 并存的矛盾关系。