earticle

영어

Many cities in South Korea are facing the challenge of declining populations. To address the issue of urban shrinkage, this study utilizes population data from KOSIS for the years 2008 to 2023. By calculating the degree of population shrinkage, the study analyzes the population changes across 228 basic local administrative units. The results indicate that, over the past 15 years, 160 cities (70.2% of the total) have experienced population declines, highlighting the urgent need for most local governments to address urban shrinkage. Furthermore, among the remaining 68 cities, 36 have also begun to see population decreases in the last five years, underscoring the intensifying nature of the problem. In addition, this study employs a cubic function model to fit the population and time series data for each city, classifying them into four types: Fluctuation Reduction Type, Continuous Reduction Type, Fluctuation Growth Type, and Continuous Growth Type. The analysis reveals that population growth is primarily concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area, while other regions generally face population declines. Finally, through case studies of each city type, we examine regional characteristics and population growth rates. This study aims to provide data support and strategic recommendations for future urban development and governance transformations, helping policymakers more effectively address the challenges posed by urban shrinkage.