earticle

영어

This study aims to predict uncertain future scenarios that may unfold in South Korea in the near future, utilizing the theory of extreme events(X-events). A group of 32 experts, consisting of government emergency planning officers, was selected as the focus group to achieve this objective. Using the Focus Group Interview (FGI) technique, opinions were gathered from this focus group regarding potential X-events that may occur within the advanced science and technology domains over the next 10 years. The analysis of these opinions revealed that government emergency planning officers regarded the "Obsolescence of current technology and systems," particularly in the context of cyber network paralysis as the most plausible X-event within science and technology. They also put forth challenging and intricate opinions, including the emergence of new weapon systems and ethical concerns associated with artificial intelligence (AI). Given that X-events are more likely to emerge in unanticipated areas rather than those that are widely predicted, the results obtained from this study carry significant importance. However, it's important to note that this study is grounded in a limited group of experts, highlighting the necessity for subsequent research involving a more extensive group of experts. This research seeks to stimulate studies on extreme events at a national level and contribute to the preparation for future X-event predictions and strategies for addressing them.