원문정보
초록
영어
Stock and bond prices move together with greater country-specific risk. Bonds hedge global growth expectation risk with low country-specific risk, resulting in a negative stockbond correlation. However, as country-specific risk increases, bonds do not effectively hedge stocks because higher local growth expectation tends to lower inflation, leading to higher stock and bond prices. Consequently, countries with greater country-specific risk exhibit a higher stock-bond correlation. Investments in countries with a positive stockbond relationship outperform those with a negative relationship by 7–11%. The superior performance is not driven by investments in a fixed set of countries.
목차
I. Introduction
II. The model
III. The model
1. Consumption and inflation dynamics
2. Bond yields and currency returns
3. Parameter assumptions
4. SB correlation/beta and country-specific volatility
5. Drivers of stock-bond return dynamics
IV. Data
V. Determinants of stock-bond joint dynamics
1. The relationship between growth and inflation
2. Stock and bond market response to growth and inflation shocks
3. Country-specific volatility and the SB correlation
VI. The cross-section of country stock returns
1. Main empirical result
2. Default risk
3. Cross-sectional regressions
VII. Globalization and SB correlation
VIII. Conclusion
References
Figure
Table
A. Data appendix
B. Technical appendix
C. Additional cross-sectional regressions