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논문검색

Development and Application of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze Heatwave Impacts

원문정보

초록

영어

The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model to dynamically analyze the effects of heatwaves and apply it to real-world situations. For this purpose, first, the influencing factors of heatwaves were identified through previous studies. Second, a dynamic heatwave model was developed. Third, time series data from 2009 to 2018 were constructed, and the model was applied to Seoul. In this step, scenarios based on the budget were created, and the intensity of heatwaves resulting from changes in variables were measured. The results are as follows: First, the policy factors of heatwaves were classified into the cause and effect of the heatwave group, heatwave mitigation policy group, and heatwave adaptation group, forming a feedback structure. Second, it was observed that a 20% increase in budgets starting from 2040 led to temperature reductions of 1.57°C for the eco-friendly vehicle policy, 0.29°C for the high-efficiency air conditioners policy, 0.06°C for heatwave shelters, and 0.77°C for the creation of green space policy. Third, increasing the budget for heatwave shelters was found to be highly effective in reducing the number of people with heat-related illnesses.

목차

ABSTRACT
Introduction
Research Backgrounds
Causes of Heatwave
Impacts of Heatwave
Policies Related to Heatwave
Methods
Research Methods
Variables Selection & Data Accumulation
Results
System Boundary & Causal Loop Diagram
Development of a Heatwave Simulation Model
Verification of Simulation Model
Application of System Dynamics Model
Discussions and Conclusions
Acknowledgement
References

저자정보

  • Cheol Hee Son Department of Urban Engineering, Chungbuk National University
  • Yu Mi Kim Department of Urban Engineering, Chungbuk National University
  • Yong Un Ban Department of Urban Engineering, Chungbuk National University

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