earticle

영어

Trend Impact Analysis is a prominent hybrid method has been used in future studies with a modified surprise-free forecast. It considers experts' perceptions about how future events may change the surprise-free forecast. It is an advanced forecasting tool used in futures studies for identifying, understanding and analyzing the consequences of unprecedented events on future trends. In this paper, we propose an advanced mechanism to generate more justifiable estimates to the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as a function of time with different degrees of severity using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The key idea of the paper is to enhance the generic process of reasoning with fuzzy logic and neural network by adding the additional step of attributes simulation, as unprecedented events do not occur all of a sudden but rather their occurrence is affected by change in the values of a set of attributes. An ANFIS approach is used to identify the occurrence and severity of an event, depending on the values of its trigger attributes.