earticle

영어

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between production and exchange rate by industry in the manufacturing industry by cycle. To achieve the purpose of the study, the production indices of 24 representative industries were identified by reconstructing the domestic manufacturing supply trends of the National Statistical Office. In this case, the classification of the manufacturing industry is based on the Korea Standard Industrial Classification Table of the National Statistical Office, which was revised nine times in 2017. The reason why this study does not apply the Korean Standard Industrial Classification Table, revised 10 times in 2017, is that the time range of this study is from 2000 to 2018, before the corona pandemic. For analysis, the production indices of 24 representative industries are identified by reconstructing the domestic manufacturing supply trends of the National Statistical Office. Then, after linking this with the exchange rate change by year, wavelet analysis is performed using a vector autoregressive model (VAR). As a result of the analysis, it was verified that the relationship between production and the exchange rate was different for each industry. In other words, it was confirmed that there is a balanced relationship between the exchange rate and production in industries except heavy industry and light industry. These results are expected to be utilized as economic policy tools and investment indicators for private investors.

한국어

본 연구의 목적은 제조업의 업종별 생산과 환율이 어떤 관계가 있는지를 주기별로 분석하는 것이다. 이 를 위해 통계청의 제조업 국내공급동향을 재구성하여 대표적 24개 업종의 생산지수를 파악하였다. 이때 제조업의 업종 분류는 2017년 9차 개정된 통계청의 한국표준산업분류표에 따른 것이다. 본 연구에서 2017년 10차 개정된 한국표준산업분류표에 따르지 않는 이유는 본 연구의 시간적 범위가 2000년부터 코로나 팬더믹 이전까지인 2018 년까지이기 때문이다. 이를 연도별 환율 변동추이와 연계하여, 벡터자기회귀 모형(VAR : Vector Autoregressive Model)을 활용하여 소파동 분석을 한다. 분석결과, 생산과 환율의 관계가 업종별로 각각다른 것으로 검증되었다. 즉, 중공업, 경공업을 제외한 업종들이 환율과 생산과의 균형관계가 존재하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과 는 경제정책수단 및 민간 투자자들의 투자지표로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.