earticle

영어

This study tried to estimate the ex-post industrial trade effects of the Korea-ASEAN FTA with the structural gravity equation. In order to effectively achieve this purpose, I used exporter-sector-time and importer-sector-time fixed effects to account for the unobservable multilateral resistance terms, employed the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood(PPML) estimator to address the issue of heteroskedasticity in trade data and to take advantage of the information contained in the zero trade flows, and used ITPD-E database on international and intra-national trade flows for consistency with the underlying gravity theory. As a result of the PPML estimation, it was found that the effects of the basic gravitational factors (distance, common language, colonial relationship, border, etc.) widely adopted are heterogeneous by industry, and the Korea-ASEAN FTA’s sectoral trade effects were the highest in the manufacturing sector.