earticle

영어

The study is aim to analyze major trends and derive major characteristic factors that influence successful terrorist attacks through analysis of drone terrorism attack cases that can be used as an optimized means of terrorism in the future. In the theoretical background, three main characteristics were derived through analysis of major cases and previous studies on terrorist and military attacks using drones. First, drones strategically utilize the asymmetry of vulnerable anti-air defense systems at low cost to increase killing and impact power. Second, even if the terrorist is not exposed, consecutive and simultaneous strikers are possible. Third, it was confirmed that the ICT technology of the 4th Industrial Revolution was fused and preferred as a more sophisticated and sufficient destructive striker. The following results could be derived through frequency analysis and cross-analysis of 265 drone terrorist incidents around the world from 2016 to 2019. First, drone terrorism has been intensively occurring mainly in Middle Eastern countries, such as civil wars, due to their weak security capabilities since 2016, and terrorist attacks using bombs are overwhelmingly high in terms of rational choice theory. Second, unlike soft targets, which are trends in general global terrorism, it was analyzed that the pattern of complex terrorism mainly focused on hard targets such as important national facilities affects the success of terrorism. Based on these research results, it is urgent to establish a drone air defense system centered on hard targets such as Cheong Wa Dae, important national facilities in Korea, and major terrorist facilities from a physical security perspective. It also proposed the development of a national terrorist response standard and practical manual that assumes possible simultaneous terrorist situations for each major terrorist target, such as vehicle rush terrorism and bio-terrorism, which can be linked to drone terrorism. The purpose of the study is to analyze major trends and derive major characteristic factors that influence successful terrorist attacks through analysis of drone terrorism attack cases that can be used as an optimized means of terrorism in the future. In the theoretical background, three main characteristics were derived through analysis of major cases and previous studies on terrorist and military attacks using drones. First, drones strategically utilize the asymmetry of vulnerable anti-air defense systems at low cost to increase killing and impact power. Second, even if the terrorist is not exposed, consecutive and simultaneous strikers are possible. Third, it was confirmed that the latest ICT technology was fused and preferred as a more sophisticated and sufficient destructive striker. In addition, frequency analysis and cross-analysis with major variables were conducted on 265 drone terrorist incidents around the world from 2016 to 2019. Through this, the following results could be derived. First, drone terrorism has intensively occurred in summer climates in Middle Eastern countries with weak security capabilities since 2016. As for the form of attack, it was analyzed that terrorist attacks using bombs were overwhelmingly high in terms of rational choice theory. Second, unlike soft targets, which are trends in universal terrorism, it was analyzed that the pattern of complex terrorism mainly affects the success of terrorism in hard targets such as important national facilities. As a major policy implication, it is urgent to establish an air defense system for drones centered on hard targets such as important national facilities from a physical security perspective. It also proposed the development of a national terrorist response standard and practical manual that assumes possible simultaneous terrorist situations for each major terrorist target, such as vehicle rush terrorism and bio-terrorism, which can be linked to drone terrorism.

한국어

이 연구의 목적은 ICT 기술 발전으로 인해 드론이 향후 최적화된 신종 테러수단으로 활용될 수 있는 환경에서 최근 드론을 활용한 테러사건의 실증분석을 통한 주요한 경향성과 패턴을 분석하고, 정책적 시사점을 도출하기 위함이다. 이를 위해 이론적 배경에서는 드론을 활용한 테러 및 군사적 공격에 관한 사례분석을 통해 주요 한 특성을 도출하였다. 첫째 드론은 적은 비용으로 상대적으로 취약한 하드타깃 대공방어체계의 비 대칭성을 전략적으로 활용하여 살상력 및 충격력을 증대시키며, 둘째 테러범이 전면에 나서지 않고 도 연속적·동시다발적인 공격수행이 가능하고, 셋째 4차 산업혁명 ICT 기술의 고도화·융합화로 보다 정교하고 충분한 파괴력을 갖춘 공격수단으로 선호되고 있음을 확인하였다. 이를 토대로 2016년부터 2019년까지 전 세계에서 발생한 드론테러사건에 대한 빈도분석 및 주요 변수들과의 교차분석을 통해 아래와 같은 결과를 도출하였다. 첫째, 드론테러는 국가내전 등 정치적 갈등이 지속되고 있는 중동·북아프리카 국가들을 중심으로 하계 기간에 주로 발생하고 있으나 테러 성공 확률은 동계기간이 상대적으로 높았으며, 폭탄을 활용한 테러공격이 압도적인 것으로 나타났 다. 둘째, 최근의 전 세계적으로 일반화된 테러양상인 소프트타깃 위주의 테러공격과는 달리 주로 국가중요시설 등 하드타깃 위주에서 발생했으나, 성공가능성은 상대적으로 소프트타깃이 높은 것으 로 나타났다. 셋째로 드론과 연계한 동시다발적인 복합테러 형태의 공격이 테러성공에 높은 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 연구결과를 토대로 한 주요 정책적 시사점으로는 첫째 계절적 환경요인이 드론테러 성공 의 주요한 영향요인이므로 기온·강수 등을 고려한 차별화된 드론방어체계 역량의 배비, 둘째 국가중 요시설 등 하드타깃 위주의 드론방어체계의 우선 보강과 대규모 다중운집시설 등 주요 소프트타깃 에 대한 기본적인 드론탐지·차단시스템 도입, 셋째 거버넌스 차원의 드론테러대응협의체의 확대 운 영, 넷째 복합테러 위협에 대비하여 주요 테러대상목표별 드론테러와 연계될수 있는 발생 가능한 동 시다발 테러상황을 상정한 국가테러대응 표준·실무 매뉴얼의 보완을 제안하였다.