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인구구조 변화가 지역내총생산에 미치는 영향 : 성장분해모형의 인천광역시 적용사례를 중심으로

원문정보

Effect of Demographic Structural Change on GRDP Growth : Growth Decomposition Method Applied to Incheon Metropolitan City

최태림, 최명섭

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초록

영어

Demographic change has been paid attention to policy makers in South Korea because this country experienced unprecedented aging society. Even large metropolitan cities lost their population and the ratio of working age population sharply dropped. There has been growing concern on the devastating effect of rapid demographic changes on the metropolitan cities. The paper aims to analyze the effect of demographic structural change on the regional economic growth in a case of Incheon metropolitan city of South Korea. We employ a growth decomposition method through which per capita GRDP is decomposed into some factors including productivity, reallocation of labor, employment rate, and ratio of working age population. The analytical result provides some empirical findings of the negative effect of population aging but those effects are offset by increase of labor market participation and sectoral productivity. In addition, we simulate the effect of demographic changes over 20 years. It shows that per capita GRDP of Incheon metropolitan city would reach a peak in 2028 and then decline gradually.

목차

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 연구의 범위 및 내용
Ⅱ. 선행연구
1. 인구구조 변화와 경제성장
2. 실증연구 검토
3. 본 연구의 차별성
Ⅲ. 분석틀
1. 분석방법
2. 분석자료
Ⅳ. 분석결과
1. 성장분해모형 분석결과
2. 인천광역시 인구구조변화에 따른 1인당 GRDP 전망
Ⅴ. 결론
참고문헌

저자정보

  • 최태림 Choi, Taelim. 인천연구원 연구위원
  • 최명섭 Choi, Myoungsub. 가톨릭대학교 정부혁신생산성연구소 연구원

참고문헌

자료제공 : 네이버학술정보

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