earticle

영어

It is well known that news can affect the psychological factor and sustain the housing bubble by framing specific information about the housing market. The news reports about real estate market could affect an expectation of housing consumers which is one of the significant factors to explain housing market trends. To explore the relationship among housing market news, consumers' sentiment, and market trends, we develop a Media Tone Index based on housing news articles collected from the online portal site. We apply text-mining techniques to quantify the tones of news articles related to the housing market. Then, we conduct time-series analysis such as Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Error Correction (ARDL-EC) models to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Media Tone Index and housing market trends in South Korea. As a result, we identify similar time-series trends between the Media Tone index and consumers' sentiment. Moreover, when the housing market was on a downtrend, news articles' tone tended to become positive. The relationship between the Media Tone Index and other housing market variables identified in this study could provide a better understanding of housing market dynamics both in the short- and long-term.

한국어

주택경기는　부동산　시장　참여자의　소비심리에　영향을　받는데，　언론의　부동산　시장에　대한　보도　논조는　부동산　시장　참여자의　소비심리에　영향을　미치고　결과적으로　주택경기에도　영향을　미칠　수　있다．본　연구에서는　텍스트마이닝　기술을　활용하여　언론의　주택시장에　대한　보도논조지수를　측정하기　위한　감성사전을　개발하였고，　이를　바탕으로　구축된　월별　주택시장　보도논조지수와　부동산　시장소비심리지수，　아파트거래량，　아파트가격지수와의　동적　영향　관계를　분석하였다．분석결과，　언론이　긍정적으로　주택시장을　보도할　때，　부동산　시장　소비심리는　상승하며，　이는　실물경기（거래량　 및　가격）에도　긍정적　영향을　미친다．　역으로，　주택경기가　하강　국면일　때，　언론은　오히려　긍정적으로　시장　전망을　보도를　하는　경향이　있어，　전반적으로　주택시장에　대한　긍정적　보도　경향이　높음을　확인할　수　있었다．이러한，　연구결과는　언론이　주택시장에　대한　긍정적　전망　프레임을　형성하여　부동산　시장의　버블을　조장할　수　있다는　국외　선행　연구와　일치하는　결과로서　국내에서도　언론의　부동산　시장에　미치는　영향이　중요함을　확인할　수　있었다．