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논문검색

공간변이할당모형을 이용한 항만의 대중국 수출의 공간전염분석과 불변시장점유율과의 결합을 통한 수출변동의 예측

원문정보

Spatial Contagion Analysis of Port Exports to China Based on Spatial Shift-Share Models and Export Growth Forecast with Constant Market Share and Shift-Share Analysis Combined

모수원, 이광배

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초록

영어

The decomposition of the exports of individual ports shows different patterns of performance. Some ports have a mediocre performance and experience a decrease in their share of exports, but other ports record a good export performance. This paper applies constant market share model and shift share model to export variation of individual ports. The constant market shares analysis shows that Incheon Port and Pyeongtaek Port suffering from poor export performance have negative value for the competitiveness effect, while the ports composed of Gwangyang Port, Busan Port, Ulsan Port, and Daesan Port experiencing export increase have positive values for the competitiveness effect between 2016 and 2018. The competitiveness effect has asymmetric effects on export variation since the competitiveness effect has a strong impact on the export decrease but exerts very weak influence for export increase. The shift share analysis also shows that Busan Port, Gwangyang Port, and Ulsan Port have comparative competitive advantage over the other three ports but their export increase is owing to world growth effect rather than their competitiveness.

목차

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 공간변이할당모형과 불변시장점율모형 도입
Ⅲ. 공간변이할당분석과 불변시장점율분석
Ⅳ. 결론
참고문헌

저자정보

  • 모수원 Soo-Won Mo⋅. 목포대학교 교수
  • 이광배 Kwang-Bae Lee. 순천대학교 교수

참고문헌

자료제공 : 네이버학술정보

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