earticle

영어

The present paper analyzes the trade interdependence among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) using the most recent international trade matrix for the period 1995-2018. Russia exhibits the highest trade influential coefficients during the whole period and it influences and contributes the most to the trade of the other members of the CIS. Kazakhstan and Ukraine also have high trade influential coefficients, though Ukraine exhibits a lower coefficient after 2014. Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have the highest trade sensitivity coefficients for the entire period. Moldova and Ukraine also exhibit high trade sensitivity coefficients before falling below one at the end of the period. The trade structure test, which combines the trade influence and sensitivity coefficients, shows that if in the 1990s Russia was the only country with an independent trade structure, in 2018 Kazakhstan also stays along with Russia, moving from a dependent trade structure to an independent trade structure in the CIS. All other countries, except Azerbaijan, Moldova, and Ukraine, show a dependent trade structure within the CIS in 2018. Uzbekistan is on the verge between enhanced and dependent trade.