earticle

영어

This paper aims to estimate the spillover effect on Saemangeum and Jeonbuk area when service trade restrictions are liberalized to increase international competitiveness of Korea's service trade. By linking the OECD's Service Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI)with service trade data, the impact of reforming service regulations for restrictive free trade on service exports is estimated by service trade policies and sectors. In order to develop the Saemangeum as a global free trade-in-services center, financial services, telecommunication services, professional, scientific and technical services, computer services, and transportation services are chosen to be primarily examined. The spillover effect on Jeonbuk economy is analyzed using the regional input-output table. Using panel data from 2014 to 2017, empirical estimation shows that when Korean service trade restrictions are lowered by 7.6%p centered on barriers to competition, and liberalized above the average of OECD countries, exports of financial services, telecommunication services, professional, scientific and technical services, computer services, and transportation services of Jeonbuk increases by total￦52.2 billion over the five years between 2019 and 2023. And￦96.3 billion induced-production, ￦40.6 billion induced-value being added, and 992 job creations are estimated. Furthermore, if services regulations of Korea are to be liberalized fully on Saemangeum, the maximumexports increase is estimated at ￦1.77 trillion, 39%of GRDP of Jeollabuk-do.

한국어

본논문은한국서비스무역제한을개선할경우새만금및전북지역에미치는파급효과를추정한 다. OECD의서비스무역제한지수와서비스무역자료를연계하여서비스규제개혁이서비스수출 에미치는영향을서비스무역정책및서비스업종별로추정한다.새만금을글로벌서비스자유무역 중심지로개발하기위해금융등5대서비스업종에서전북지역경제에대한파급효과를지역산업 연관분석을통해추정한다. 2014~2017년사이의패널자료로실증분석한결과,국내서비스무 역규제제한을경쟁장벽을중심으로7.6%p낮춰OECD회원국평균이상으로자유화할경우, 전북의금융,통신,전문과학기술,컴퓨터,운송서비스의수출은2019~23년사이5년간522억원증가하는가운데생산유발,부가가치유발,일자리유발은각각963억원, 406억원, 992개 로추정된다. 최대수출증가액은전북GRDP의39%수준인1조7,900억원으로추정된다.