earticle

영어

The continuous increase in household debt in Korea over recent years has been widely noted as a potential risk to the country’s economy. In particular, the sustained increase in U.S. interest rates have raised the risk of default on household debt. To prevent the spread of household defaults in the economy as a whole, policies for consumer credit recovery should be re-evaluated, and institutional improvements are needed. This study considers the characteristics of delinquent borrowers and draws policy implications from a quantitative analysis of data from a representative consumer credit recovery program. In particular, we assemble a massive but precise micro-data set to identify the major factors that influence the process of consumer credit recovery. From the findings, we derive a set of substantial policy proposals. Our analysis classifies delinquent borrowers into three groups as follows: (i) group A, delinquent borrowers who are eligible for the credit recovery program; (ii) group B, delinquent borrowers who have applied to the program and are paying off their debt; and (iii) group C, delinquent borrowers who have completely paid off their debt and are no longer part of the program. Our results have several policy implications. First, the probability that delinquent borrowers will settle their debt by using the credit recovery program gradually decreases as the delinquency period increases. In addition, the probability of delinquent borrowers settling their debt through the credit recovery program is significantly affected by the amount of their debt, their age, and the period of delinquency. The empirical results also show that delinquent borrowers with smaller bonds, lower ages, and shorter delinquency periods have a higher tendency to join the program, and a greater willingness to recover their creditworthiness. A longer delinquency period and a higher age both reduce the probability of starting the program. Therefore, it is necessary to start the credit recovery program and manage it within the system before the delinquency period grows too long. Second, the probability of completing the program gradually increases as the delinquency period becomes longer. The successful completion of the program is mainly a function of the amount of debt and the debt reduction rate. A smaller bond and a higher debt reduction rate make it easier to repay the debt and complete the program. Notably, we find that borrowers with longer delinquency periods are more likely to pay off their debt completely, and this finding is robust after controlling for the debt reduction rate. This pattern emerges because a longer delinquency period increases the debt reduction rate, and improves the borrower’s ability to repay the debt. Over time, the causes of delinquency (e.g., unemployment and illness) tend to be resolved, and the borrower’s ability to repay increases. Therefore, it is necessary to consider expanding the grace period (i.e., the period in which a borrower does not need to follow the repayment plan), as this allows borrowers more time to recover their ability to repay the debt. Third, there is a time limit to the recovery in a borrower’s ability to repay. Borrowers with longer delinquency periods are more likely to pay off their debt completely, because the causes of delinquency are more likely to be resolved. However, borrowers who are overdue by more than 10 years are less likely to complete the credit recovery program. Currently, the government is promoting a debt relief program for delinquent borrowers whose total debt is less than KRW10 million, and whose delinquency period is longer than 10 years. Our results provide an empirical basis for this policy. In considering the empirical results regarding the relationship between the delinquency period and the probability of completing the program, we suggest that the program’s efficiency can be improved by restricting the number of extensions of the valid period for delinquent debt, restricting the extensions to small amounts of money, and offering such extensions to low-income borrowers only.

한국어

지난 수년간 지속된 가계부채의 누적 증가는 국가 경제의 잠재적 뇌관으로 지목되고 있다. 특히 미국의 기준금리 인상에 따른 국내 금리인상 압력 증가는 가계부채의 부실위험을 증가시킨다. 가계부채의 부실이 국내 경제 전반으로 퍼지지 않으려면, 금융채무 불이행자의 채무조정제도 관련 정책을 평가하고 제도적 개선안을 찾는 노력이 필요하다. 본 연구는 개인부실채권 채무조정에 관한 자료를 연구하여, 연체채무자가 채무조정약정을 체결하고 상환하는 과정을 실증분석하였다. 연구 결과는 다음의 정책적 함의를 지닌다. 첫째, 연체채무자의 채무조정 약정체결확률은 연체기간이 길어질수록 점차 감소한다. 따라서 연체채무가 장기화되기 전에 채무조정제도 편입을 통해 제도권 내에서 관리하며 정상적인 경제활동으로의 조속한 복귀를 지원할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 약정체결자의 완제종결확률은 연체기간이 길어질수록 점차 증가한다. 이는 긴 연체기간 으로 인해 높은 감면율이 적용될 뿐만 아니라 실직․질병 등 연체사유가 해소되면서 채무자의 상환능력이 회복되기 때문이다. 따라서 연체채무자의 상환능력 회복을 위해서는 유예기간을 확대하는 방안 등의 검토가 필요할 수 있다. 셋째, 그럼에도 불구하고 연체채무자의 상환능력 회복에는 한계가 있다. 연체기간이 약 10년을 넘어서는 경우 채무조정약정을 체결하더라도 완제종결확률이 감소한다. 이러한 실증분석 결과는 현재 논의되는 장기소액연체자 지원에 대한 간접적 근거가 될 수 있다.