원문정보
Long Memory of Relation between Oil Price and China Price
초록
영어
In this study, the fractional cointegration approach was implemented considering long memory of the relationship between petroleum price and China’s price. Considering information on the long-run stable relationship, the error correction model was used to analyze the short-run dynamics. The frequency domain Granger causality analysis was performed to identify the sequence of variables. As a result, we can confirm the cointegration relation between the oil price and the China’s price. In general, cost side factors such as oil prices are known to have a short-run impact on prices, but the long-term relationship between oil prices and prices has been proved by the discovery of long-term memory characteristics. This suggests that the existence of long-term memory between oil prices and prices offers considerable implications for analyzing China's price response to oil price fluctuations. The adjustment process can take a considerable amount of time when an imbalance occurs due to a temporary shock. The error correction model was estimated using information on the long-run equilibrium relationship between oil prices and prices. The adjustment process took about one year, and indirect evidence of long-run memory was found. In the error-correction model, oil price fluctuations are positively correlated with price fluctuations, but their effects are relatively small compared with the long-run equilibrium relationship. As a result of the Grange causality test in the frequency domain, it can be confirmed that the oil price has causality to the wholesale price index throughout the frequency, but the wholesale price index of China does not have causality to the oil price. This reflects reality. China is expanding its influence as a major consumer in the oil market, but prices are not enough to make a significant impact on crude oil prices. On the other hand, it can be seen that oil price is a useful parameter for predicting China's wholesale price index regardless of short and long term. To ease inflationary pressures on oil price shocks, Chinese authorities will need to eliminate unnecessary price regulation and improve market structure and price delivery systems. Market - friendly economic structures and flexible price mechanisms can cushion inflation by improving the adjustment mechanism for oil price shocks.
목차
1. 서론
2. 분석모형
2.1 ARFIMA 모형과 분수공적분
2.2 효율적인 장기균형관계 추정방법
2.3 진동수영역에서 인과성 분석
3. 자료 분석 및 실증결과
3.1 자료
3.2 분석결과
4. 결론
참고문헌
