earticle

영어

The purpose of this study is to analyze that macro-economic variables determine the impact on housing prices. For analysis, Regional home sales and macro-economic variables from 1998 to 2009 since IMF were used. Stability for time series data was verified through the verification of stability. Grandeur casuality analyzed the relationship between each variable and the influence and then the numerical analysis model was constructed. The impulse response analysis in VAR models were conducted, the following results were obtained. First, the analysis results of correlation shows that the consumer price index, KOSPI, Composite index of housing prices leading to the correlation coefficient was higher than 0.7. Second, the analysis results of Granger casuality shows that there is a Granger causal relationship between the consumer price index, KOSPI, Composite index of housing prices leading and Regional home sales. However, corporate Bond yields were opposed. Gangnam region is not a two-way Granger casual relationship between corporate Bond yield and Regional home sales of the Gangnam. Third, the research is analyzed that the housing market was showed a positive reaction to KOSPI, Composite index of housing prices leading, and corporate Bond yields`shock: on the other hand, react positively to the CPI's shock for a while, but soon it react negatively to the CPI's shock. Fifth, the impulse response for all variables occurred across the two-time impulse response effect when 1st shock response in the mostly 2-3, 2nd mainly in the 3-8 primary difference was the largest analysis of reactions. Sensitivity to the impact of the size of the reaction was in order Composite Stock Price Index, Composite leading index, consumer price index, corporate bond yields. Finally, Gangnam region was most sensitive to the impact of macroeconomic variables, but Gangbuk region and the metropolitan city was a slow response.