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Russia’s “Pivot to Asia” : A Balance Sheet

원문정보

Stephen Blank, Youn-Kyoo Kim

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초록

영어

Despite the challenges Russia faces, many Russian writers and officials continue to insist that the country is making visible strides forward in its so-called pivot to Asia. Russia’s ability to influence the many multilateral projects that pervade Asia from the Arctic to Southeast Asia and increase its role in them represents an “acid test” of whether or not proclamations of the correctness of Russian policy can stand up to scrutiny. Such scrutiny shows that Russia is failing to benefit from or participate in these projects. The one exception, the Eurasian Union, has become an economic disappointment to both Russia and its other members. Russia is actually steadily losing ground to China in the Arctic, Central Asia, and North Korea. Likewise, in Southeast Asia Moscow has promoted and signed many agreements with members of ASEAN, only to fail to implement them practically. Since Asia, as Moscow well knows, is the most dynamic sector of the global economy, this failure to reform at home and implement the developmental steps needed to compete in Asia can only presage negative geoeconomic and geopolitical consequences for Russia as it steadily becomes increasingly marginalized in the region despite its rhetoric and diplomatic activity.

목차

Abstract
 I. Introduction
 II. Russia and Multilateral Economic Projects in Asia
 III. Can Russia Partner with China in Asia?
  1. BRI vs. EEU
  2. Russo-Chinese Relationship in the Arctic
  3. China’s Presence in Central Asia
 IV. Political Roadblocks to the Way Forward
 V. Regional Alternatives
 VI. Conclusion
 References

저자정보

  • Stephen Blank Senior Fellow, American Foreign Policy Council, USA
  • Youn-Kyoo Kim Division of Int’l Studies, Hanyang University, South Korea

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