earticle

영어

As the Soviet Union and the socialist countries in eastern Europe collapsed in the early 1990s, there was a shift from a Soviet command economy to a free market economy. In line with this change, there was also a growing interest in how these changes affected the economic development of these transition economies. In particular, many studies on the increase of FDI inflow and its determinants have been conducted since then. This study analyzed the determinants of FDI into the four nations of the Visegrad (hereinafter Visegrad 4), using bilateral panel data from EU 24 countries investing in Visegrad 4 from 1995 to 2012. The empirical analysis is based on the economic factors in the gravity model, and the governance indices, the economic liberalization index, and the transition indicators are sequentially considered to analyze the determinants of FDI in Visegrad 4. The findings of the analysis are summarized as follows: First, the basic gravity model parameters are directly proportional to the size of GDP of trading partners and inversely proportional to distance. In other words, the larger the GDP of the EU 24 countries and Visegrad 4, the greater the FDI inflow, and the greater the distance between the two, the smaller the FDI inflow. Second, when economic variables such as GDP per capita, real effective exchange rate, and trade volume out of GDP were added, all three variables were statistically relevant at 1% significance level. This indicates that as the currency value of the Visegrad 4 declines, the larger the trade volume, the more FDI inflows can be stimulated, but the GDP per capita indicates (-) value at 1% significance level. It seems to have played the role of production base for European and other third countries' market entry, rather than expanding host countries’ market through FDI. Third, the governance indices of the World Bank showed statistically significant in the variables of regulatory quality, rule of law, and voice and accountability. The higher the quality of regulation that can promote the development of the private sector, the higher the level of citizens' compliance with the law, the stronger the system of the rule of law, the higher the level of citizen's right to vote including freedom of speech, assembly, and expression, the more possibilities of attracting FDI. Fourth, the economic liberalization index of the Heritage Foundation and the transition indicators of the EBRD showed statistically significant in terms of property rights or ownership protection, and transition index. This implies that the greater the degree of protection of property rights, and the greater the convergence of transition to the market economy, the greater the likelihood of FDI inflow. The findings of the empirical analysis are consistent with the results of previous studies, showing that the determinants of FDI inflows in advanced economies are mainly economic factors, but in the case of developing and transition economies, they are directly affected by political and institutional factors as well as economic ones.

한국어

1980년대 말 사회주의 경제체제를 포기하고 시장경제로 체제전환을 단행한 비세그라드 (Visegrad) 4국은 상대적으로 다른 체제전환국들보다 빠른 경제성장을 달성했는데 외국인직접투자 (FDI)가 상당한 영향을 미쳤다고 할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 중력모형을 이용하여 1995년부터 2012년까지 18년간 EU 24개국의 비세그라드 4국에 대한 양자 간 패널자료를 토대로 경제적인 요인, 거버넌스 지수, 경제적 자유화 지수, 체제전환지수들을 차례로 고려하여 비세그라드 4국의 FDI 유입 결정요인을 분석하였다. 분석결과 비세그라드 4국의 FDI 유입 결정요인들은 1인당 GDP, 실질실효환율, GDP 대비 무역 규모, 규제의 질(Regulatory Quality), 법치(Rule of Law), 시민의 참여와 책임성(Voice and Accountability), 총 경제적 자유화, 재산권 혹은 소유권 보호, 체제전환 지수 등으로 분석되었다. 이는 경제적 요인 외에 민간 부문의 발전을 촉진할 수 있는 규제의 질이 높을수록, 시민들의 법 준수 및 법치제도 확립 정도가 높을수록, 언론과 집회 및 표현의 자유를 포함한 시민의 참정권 수준이 높을수록, 경제적 자유화 정도가 높을수록, 재산권 보호 정도가 강화될수록, 체제전환 정도가 시장경제에 수렴할수록 FDI 유입 가능성이 높다는 것을 시사한다.