원문정보
An Effect on the Productivity by the Demand Forecasts Using the Time-Series and Marketing Strategies
초록
영어
Most of the demand forecasts which have been studied are based on the long-term time series over 15 years. In this paper, we set up the optimal ARIMA model for the short-term time series demand forecasting and suggest appraising suitability and forecasting on the model. We are going to use the univariate ARIMA model in parallel with the Bivariate Transfer Function Model to improve accuracy of forecasting. Also we analyse advertisement cost, scale of branch store, number of clerk, etc. to search effect of sales policy on productivity. After then, we are going to show customer's needs on the future. We have applied this method for the annual sales of refrigerator in four branch store cases.
목차
II. 마케탱 생산성에 관한 이론적 배경과 선행연구
1. 마케팅 생산성에 대한 이론적 배경
2. 마케팅 효과성의 달성
3. 마케팅 효율성의 달성
III. 시계열모형과 특성분석기준
1. ARIMA
2. 전이함수 (Transfer Function)
3. 정보기준(l nformation Criteria)
4. 단위근의 존재여부
IV. 예측모형 구축 및 방법
1. 변수 설명
2. 광고비용
3. 예측 방법
4. 지역 대리점별 디오스 판매 현황
V. 모형분석
1. ARIMA모형
2. 전이함수 모형
V. 결론
참고문헌
Abstract