earticle

영어

The global climate change, mainly due to emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use and forest destruction, may become one of the most serious environmental problems. The impacts of a rapid climate change have been discussed by researchers who are physical, biological, environmental scientists, and economists for over the decades. Especially, the carbon dioxide released by humans into the atmosphere dissolves into oceans. In this paper, we measured both economic valuation and optimal production scale per hectare for grow-out phase production of the tidal flat oyster industry, considering ocean acidification. Increased ocean acidification by climate change had a bad influence for oyster production and economic feasibility in each scenario. In the case of production units, the total output of oyster decreased. Cost-benefit analysis used to indicate the effects of economic valuation. The fundamental role of Cost-benefit analysis is to establish principles by which the costs and benefits of any public project are measured. Using discounting rates 5.5%, the model compared profit that occur at different times from 2012 to 2100. This study also estimated various sub-models, which are Benefit Cost Ratio(BCR), Net Present Value(NPV), Incremental Benefit Cost Ratio(IBCR) to compare profit of grow-out phase and analyzed returns to evaluate the scenarios. The results suggest as follows. First, all of scenario analysis with sub-models were economically feasible. Second, scenario 2 which is the oyster spat to the shell height of less than 3cm in 5cm was more profit than the scenario 1(less than 1cm in 3cm) and 3(5-7cm). It is the optimal production scale of aquaculture industry. Third, the elevated ocean acidification by climate change had a bad influence for oyster production and economic feasibility. To summarise, the economic effect per hectare of ocean acidification did the damage to the economic loss from 0.97billion won to 1.23billion won. If we can collect more biological and environmental data on climate change impacts for oyster, we can expect that this research will be helpful for future investigation of the economic valuation dynamics in Korea.