earticle

영어

This study analysed the degree of the effects restrictiveness in FTA rules of origin had on export and import based on the research model developed by José Anson et. al.(2005). The results are presented as follows: The result of Pooled OLS showed that the estimated coefficient of GDP on export was 0.617, that of the effect of restrictiveness in rules of origin on export was 3.496, which was positive. In respect to Random Effect, only GDP(0.671) was an explanatory variable that had a positive effect on export. The estimated results of System GMM showed that the estimated coefficient of GDP on export was 0.814 and that of restrictiveness in the rules of origin on export was 10.28, which was positive. Then, in respect to the effect of restrictiveness in rules of origin on import, the result of Pooled OLS showed that the estimated coefficient of GDP on import was 0.596, which was positive. The results of Random Effect showed that only GDP(0.657) was an explanatory variable that has a positive effect on export. The result of System GMM showed that the estimated coefficient of GDP on export was 0.865.

한국어

본 연구는 José Anson et. al.(2005)의 연구모형을 바탕으로 FTA 원산지규정의 엄격성이 수출과 수입에 미치는 영향의 정도를 분석하였다. 분석결과는 먼저 원산지규정의 엄격성이 수출에 어떤 영향을 주는지를 살펴보면, Pooled OLS 결과는 GDP의 수출에 대한 추정계수는 0.617, 원산지규정의 엄격성이 수출에 대한 추정계수는 3.496으로 양의 값을 나타내며, Random Effect 결과는 GDP(0.671)만 수출에 정의 영향을 주는 설명변수이다. System GMM 추정 결과는 GDP의 수출에 대한 추정계수는 0.814로 나타났고, 원산지규정의 엄격성이 수출에 대한 추정계수는 10.28로 양의 값을 나타냈다. 다음으로 원산지규정의 엄격성이 수입에 어떤 영향을 주는지를 살펴보면, Pooled OLS 결과는 GDP의 수입에 대한 추정계수는 0.596으로 양의 값을 나타내고, Random Effect 결과는 GDP(0.657)만 수출에 정의 영향을 주는 설명변수이다. System GMM방식으로 추정한 결과는 GDP의 수출에 대한 추정계수는 0.865로 나타났다.