초록
영어
We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas. We use temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly gas consumption data during the sample period (1990-1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on natural gas demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods.
목차
I. Introduction
II. Methodology and Data
1. Methodology
2. Data Description
III. Estimation and Result
1. Global Smoothing Method
2. Local Smoothing Method
IV. Concluding Remarks
References
논문 초록