원문정보
Analysis and Prediction of Urban Thermal Environment using RCP Scenarios
초록
영어
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between urban, buildings, weather conditions and the thermal environment. We evaluated the thermal environment risk of urban due to future climate change and build quantitative data considering the thermal environment during the construction and urban planning. A total of 14 data sets were constructed to evaluate the thermal environment. Multiple regression analysis with heat index and discomfort index indicating the warm environment of city and decision tree method were used. Also, the main influencing factors were selected and the importance of the influencing factors wes derived. As a result, the influencing factors affecting the HI were variables bd, riv, forest, parking, ht, wsmx and tmax33. Influencing factors of the DI were variables bd, riv, forest, wsmx and tmax33. In addition, the variable having the greatest influence on the classification of the heat index was wsmx in the case of the HI and ht in the case of the DI. Finally, the decrease of the hazard index of the HI was confirmed by the change of the ratio of the variables bd, riv, forest and wsmx in the future period.
목차
1. 서론
1.1 연구배경 및 목적
1.2 선행연구
2. 연구의 방법
2.1 분석범위 및 방법
2.2 온열지수 소개
3. 입력변수 기초통계량
3.1 입력자료
3.2 지역별 물리·환경 특성분석
3.3 지역별 온열지수 특성분석
4. 도시온열환경 예측모형 구축
4.1 다중선형회귀모형
4.2 의사결정방법을 이용한 tree model 구축
4.3 온열 가중요인에 따른 중요도 도출
5. 미래기후 및 도시변화에 따른 온열지수 위험도평가
5.1 기상변화에 따른 지역별 온열지수 변화
5.2 도시환경변화에 따른 지역별 온열지수 변화
6. 결론
REFERENCES