earticle

영어

This study analyzed if a foreign investor has stronger role as a venturer who aims for a short-term market value profit or is contributing to stability improvement of the stock market as a long-term investor based on intrinsic value. Speculative foreign capital can hinder safety of the stock market as intensifying stock price variability due to frequent money flow because it focuses on short-term pursuit of profit, and if massive foreign capital is lead to capital investment of high speculative characteristic then it can cause excessive market distortion and therefore it is expected to have negative effect on domestic economy in a long-term perspective. Speculative capital means capital that assumes short period nature in financial engineering standpoint. As can be shown in hedge fund a type of private equity fund, speculative capital emphasizes temporary instability, inefficiency or imbalance of market. Therefore, speculative capital is very short in time frame and opportunistic in action. Since it is deemed to increase in risk with time, speculative capital has the nature to synchronize buying time point and selling time point if possible. Ones that comply with such speculative nature among foreign capitals that entered domestic market include hedge fund and private equity fund. Hedge fund is a type of fund that investment experts distribute based on investment accomplishments by raising profits in short period after raising fund in private offering method from small number of investors and operating the fund in various investment techniques including investment in derivative products and leveraged buying, and it is mostly established in tax haven. In the U.S., hedge fund is not applied with Investment Company Act, and examples of hedge fund include Quantum Fund of George Soros and Tiger Fund of Julian Robertson which is known to have attempted green mail to SK Telecom. As for examples in Korea, acquisition of Korea Exchange Bank by Loan Star and acquisition of Hanmi Bank by Carlyle, and it is urgently required to prepare preventive measure against speculative foreign capital. Such perspective of speculative foreign capital is emerging as world economic problem by going beyond the problem of deterioration of domestic economic development. Recently Seoul G20 which was held for the first time in a country which is not one of G7 advanced countries received worldwide interest by being held in a period when conflicts were raised among countries on exchange rate, and closed by accomplishing the outcome of adopting Seoul Declaration. In the course of the discussion, an opinion was raised that certain level of control on incoming and outgoing capital should be sought after to stabilize reinforcement of Korean won and extension of changeability of financial market, and permission of conditional control of foreign capital in developing countries was reviewed specifically. Such overall economic flow is contributing to pursuit of plan for control of speculative foreign capital in the nation. In the nation, plans like revival of withholding tax on interests profit of national bond by foreigners, reduction of addition of forward exchange position in domestic branches of foreign bank, and bank levy etc are being reviewed as countermeasure to restrict excessive influx of foreign capital. As there are already a great deal of foreign capital influx in the nation as well due to worldwide excess of fluidity, it is definitely urgent to prepare diverse measures to reduce the changeability of financial market. The standard deviation of stock trading shares of a time series and stock profit was used as the substitute variable of dividing speculative capital. Because if the standard deviation of stock trading shares is high then there is high possibility it is temporary investment to acquire short-term investment profit, and if the standard deviation of stock trading shares is high then the standard deviation of stock return is expected to increase because it has an effect on stock return in the short run. This study conducted an empirical analysis on the effect of speculative foreign capital on an firm value with the sample of 2,540 firm-year with financial references on a audit report that are required for empirical study among corporations that settle accounts in December excluding financial businesses listed from 2005 to 2009. As a result of analysis, capital investment by a foreigner showed the positive result of an increasing firm value. However, capital investment by a foreigner with a speculative characteristic showed the negative result of a decreasing firm value. Analysis results of this study have significance in that it suggested results of empirical analysis on controversy of the academic world or the financial world where there is coexistence of a negative perspective of viewing that foreign capital is degenerating development company as it only focuses on short-term investment and a positive perspective of viewing that it is contributing to improving the corporate governance and securing transparency in administration.

한국어

본 연구에서는 외국인 투자자가 단기 시세차익을 노리는 투기자로서의 역할이 강한지 아니면 내재가치에 기초한 장기 투자자로서 주식시장의 안정성제고에 기여하는지에 대하여 분석하였다. 투기적 외국자본은 단기적인 이윤추구에만 매달려 빈번한 자금 유출입으로 인해 주가변동성을 심화시키며 주식시장의 안정성을 저해할 수 있고, 막대한 외국자본이 투기적 성격이 높은 자본투자로 이어진다면 과도한 시장왜곡 현상을 불러올 수 있기 때문에 장기적인 관점에서 국내경제에 부정적인 영향을 미치게 될 것으로 예상된다. 투기적 외국자본을 구분하는 대용변수로 시계열상의 주식거래량 및 주식수익률의 표준편차를 이용하였다. 왜냐하면, 주식거래량의 표준편차가 크면 클수록 단기적 투자수익만을 획득하기 위한 일시투자일 가능성이 높고, 주식거래량의 표준편차가 크면 클수록 단기적으로 주식수익률에 영향을 미치기 때문에 주식수익률의 표준편차 역시 커질 것으로 예상되기 때문이다. 본 연구에서는 2005년부터 2009년까지 상장된 금융업을 제외한 12월 결산법인 중 감사보고서상 실증분석에 필요한 재무자료가 존재하는 2,540개 기업-년을 대상으로 투기적 외국 자본이 기업가치에 미치는 영향에 대하여 실증분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과, 기본적으로 외국인에 의한 자본투자의 경우 기업가치가 향상된다는 긍정적인 결과가 관찰되었다. 그러나 투기적 성격이 강한 외국인에 의한 자본투자의 경우 오히려 기업가치가 하락되는 부정적인 결과가 나타났다. 본 연구의 분석결과는 외국자본이 단기적 투기에만 목적을 두고 있어 기업발전을 저해한다는 부정적인 시각과 기업의 지배구조를 개선하고 경영투명성을 확보 하는데 기여하고 있다는 긍정적인 시각이 공존하는 학계 또는 재계의 논란에 대한 실증분석결과를 제시하였다는 점에서 의의가 있다