earticle

영어

Climate change in the modern enterprise cannot be avoided. For sustainable growth, it is the challenge should be overcome and be adapted. However, the level of corporate awareness and response to climate change is a very low. It is caused that researches on climate change have been mainly discussed about global warming and its cause, carbon dioxide, and empirical analysis of industry level about the impact of climate change is lack. In addition, it is extremely difficult to recognize a slight degree of change in average climate event such as the average temperature and rainfall. The purpose of this research is to develop Climate Volatility Indices using the climate extremes for industrial application. Among STARDEX presented by EU, the nine climate extremes are tested by panel GLS to identify their negative relationships with industrial performance. Before testing, the 9 extremes variables have been re-scaled by the dimension index method for standardization. For composite index, weights were given based on the proportion of each coefficient to sum of negatively significant coefficients among the nine climate extremes. Analyses targets are agriculture･forestry･fishery industry, construction industry, and transportation industry, with the period from 1992 to 2012. The source of data is Korea Meteorological Administration. Analysis results are as follows: The climate volatility index of agriculture･forestry･fishery industry consists of averaged wet-season rainfall, longest heat wave, and dry-season threshold. As for transportation industry, dry-season threshold and frost days are included. However, for construction industry no index couldn’t be figured out. The implications of this research are these. Firstly, climate volatility indices are presented for industrial application. These indices can help companies and industries to measure and understand the impact of climate change as a business environmental shift more easily. It can be used to improve the capability of industries to response to climate change and to develop the policy by the government. Secondly, climate factors affecting each industry are different. Agriculture･forestry･fishery industry were influenced significantly by two temperature-related indices and a rainfall-related index. On the other hand, transportation industry was influenced significantly by one temperature-related index. But construction industry has not shown significantly with extreme indices not all. These results are due to the difference in each industry production system and in the sensitivity of the resources used for business. This means that the relationship between climate change and the industry should be approached as a separate sector. Finally, the power of each climate factor appeared differently. This implies the need to respond to climate change strategically. According to the result, it is important for Agriculture･forestry･fishery industry to deal with the concentration of rainfall rather than a drought. Because the weight value of averaged wet-season rainfall is more influential than dry-season threshold’s value. As for transportation industry, the response to the heat than the cold. This strategic response contribute to the enforcement of competitiveness of firms and industry through using the budget efficiently.

한국어

현대 기업에 있어서 기후변화는 더 이상 피할 수 없는 경영환경의 변화로 지속가능한 성장을 위해서는 반드시 극복하고 적응해야 할 과제이다. 본 연구는 기후변동성지수를 개발하여 산업에 적용하기 위한 것으로 STARDEX가 제시한 극한기후 중 데이터가 부족한 cold-night을 제외한 9개의 기후요인에 대해 스케일 재조정법을 통해 표준화한 후 패널 GLS 분석을 실시하여 개별 산업의 총생산에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 지수를 추정하였다. 복합지수로의 개발을 위해 90% 수준에서 유의미한 지수의 회귀계수를 이용하여 전체 가중치의 합이 1이 되도록 재계산하여 가중치를 부여하였다. 대상은 농･임･어업, 건설업, 수송업으로 하였으며 1992년부터 2012년까지의 기상청 데이터를 활용하였다. 분석결과 농･임･어업의 기후변동성지수는 습윤일의 강우강도, 최대건조 지속기간, Hot-Day 한계점의 3개의 극한기후가 산입되었으며 수송업의 기후변동성지수에는 Hot-Day 한계점과 동결일수의 2개의 극한기후가 산입되었다. 그러나 건설업의 경우에는 기후변동성지수를 구성할 수 없었다. 본 연구에서 제시된 기후변동성지수는 기업이나 산업이 대응해야할 기후변화의 영향정도를 이해하기 쉽게 보여줄 뿐 아니라 미래를 예측하는데 있어서도 유용하게 사용될 수 있다. 또한 기후변동성지수를 구성하고 있는 개별 지표와 해당 지표의 가중치는 기업이나 산업이 전략적으로 기후변화에 대응하도록 가이드라인을 제시해줄 것이다. 따라서 기후변동성지수의 적극적인 활용은 산업과 기업의 적절한 기후변화 대응전략 수립과 이에 대한 정부의 정책개발에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.