원문정보
초록
영어
Emerging of global infectious diseases threat to worldwide induced numerous patients through person to person infection. In previous study, we investigated effects of traveling nationwide using expressway data on the spread of H1N1 influenza virus in Korea during 2009–2010. As a result, influenza epidemic patterns of the 2009 were correlated with some region traffic flow. In this study, we focused on Seoul which region is a highest density of population in Korea. Also using system dynamics-based simulation of the spread of an infectious disease in each of the 25 districts in Seoul was performed. Consequently, the decrease in the number of infected people in the district with a large floating population size was more significant than that with a high population density. This study is meaningful as it visualized the number of infected people on the map, which includes actual geographical information and the changes over time in the number of individuals that belong to S, I, and R classes of population. Also mathematical model based on Korea unique traffic and population movement information could be used. These results can be applying additional population and traffic data in the future, and support making decisions when establishing an effective infectious disease control strategy.
목차
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Epidemiological System Dynamics Modeling
2.2. Epidemic Scenario using Floating Population Data and Census Data
2.3. Simulation of Infectious Disease Spread in Seoul using AnyLogic
3. Results
3.1. Calculated Contact Rate using Floating Population Data in Seoul
3.2. Infectious Disease Spreading Simulation in Seoul
4. Discussion and Conclusions
References
