원문정보
초록
영어
Forecasting of steel demand is very important for our economy. In order to find out the connection between modernization and steel demand, we chose urbanization rate as a bridge. The study constructed an immigration model to indicate the urbanization process, then an system dynamics model was established to forecast the steel demand based on steel needs per capita. The result showed that the peak of steel demand in China would be around 100 million tone, along with 72% urbanization rate.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Introduction of Leslie Matrix
2.2. Improved Leslie Matrix
2.3. System Dynamics
2.4. Leslie-SD Modeling
3. Variables and Data
4. Results and Analysis
4.1. Prediction under Different Scenarios
4.2. Discussions
5. Conclusion
References
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Introduction of Leslie Matrix
2.2. Improved Leslie Matrix
2.3. System Dynamics
2.4. Leslie-SD Modeling
3. Variables and Data
4. Results and Analysis
4.1. Prediction under Different Scenarios
4.2. Discussions
5. Conclusion
References