earticle

영어

Risk management in project chain or multi-project is becoming a hot spot in the field of project management, however the analysis of project chain risk elements transmission almost stays in the angle of qualitative. So, in order to study the risk transmission process in project chain, the analytic model of project chain risk element transmission was established. In the beginning, the data mining method is introduced to acquire the risk elements transmission matrix and estimate the state of the risk elements through the previous state. Then, for ranking both probabilistic type and fuzzy type risk elements, probability and fuzzy numbers were transformed to interval numbers and ranking score was calculated by a ranking method. Finally, through the computation, the key risk element of different states can be obtained, through which decision makers can adjust the distribution of resources and control the key risk element. The analysis of a case has verified the validity and practicability of this method.