earticle

영어

Starting from the phenomenon that a large number of trains’ actual arrival &
departure time deviate from specified time in train working diagram in the database of
high speed railway dispatching system, the paper analyzes the defects of current train
running time calculation method. Based on data mining theory, a section running time
deviation calculation model for high speed railway train is proposed. Then the properties
of train section running time deviation are studied in three different cases (non-stop both
at the start and the end of section, stop at the end of section, and departure at the start of
section) with the data from a Chinese railway bureau dispatching system, and its further
influence on carrying capacity is analyzed. The results show that three deviation cases all
fit Gauss distribution and the accumulative deviation time can increase the transport
capacity for more than 1 million passengers per year.