earticle

영어

The sales forecast in the tobacco sales management plays a great role in the production and operation activities of an enterprise as a bridge between the production activity and the economic benefit. Forecasting system based on time series is put forward in accordance with the characteristics of tobacco sales by knowing about market supply and demand as well as development tendency at home and abroad through the sales forecast, with the help of studies on the sales forecasting technology. Time series is a sequence of random variables in chronological order and the time series analysis technique includes the moving average forecasting, exponential smoothing and regression analysis. According to the characteristics of tobacco sales data, the moving average forecasting model, exponential smoothing model and regression analysis model are established. Through programming, a forecasting system of tobacco sales is set up, which is used in combination with examples to simulate the forecasting model, and then model tests are conducted on the simulation results to get the appropriate model, which is used for sales forecast. The establishment of the system has an important influence on the management of tobacco companies. According to the forecast of tobacco sales, they will know the sales of the next period, so that they can take effective sales management strategies to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the decisions on the company's production and operation.