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영어

This paper is to set up the autoregressive distributed lag model in order to estimate the factor elasticity of industrial export and to analyze the determinants for the industrial export performance in the tourism service industries including retail·food ·lodging and transport·communication. The markup elasticities of export were estimated to be –0.368 and -0.355 respectively in retail·food·lodging and transport·communi- cation. The exchange rate elasticities of export were estimated to be 1.674 and 0.136 respectively. The import price index elasticities and interest elasticities were also estimated to be 0.162 and -0.663 in retail·food·lodging and -0.255 and 0.049 in transport·communication respectively. Thus the empirical result suggests that both import price index and interest rate have had more decisive effects on the industrial export performance in the tourism service industries, in particular, during the declining period in factor prices since the foreign currency crisis beginning in late 1997.