earticle

영어

Based on economic growth theory of modern economic theory, with Fujian Province as object of study, panel data from 1981 to 2013 is selected in this paper. Besides, VAR model is established. Co-integration test, Granger causality and impulse response function are used for quantitative analysis on correlation between consumption, investment, import, export and economic growth in Fujian Province. With Eviews8 software as analytical tool, the empirical study conducts analysis from the perspective of econometrics and tests the stationarity of unit root data; determines optimal lag intervals through VAR model analysis on different lag intervals; determines the existence of co-integration relationship of data through Johansen co-integration test; tests the causality of data with Granger causality test; conducts stationarity test by establishing VAR model; studies the variation trend of influence of consumption, investment and import and export on economic growth in the next ten years through impulse response. The author reveals long-term stable balance among consumption, investment, import, export and economic growth in Fujian Province as well as bidirectional causal relationship between consumption and economic growth. For a short term, household consumption is of relatively strong positive impact effect on economic gain, which is served as major impetus of economic growth. Domestic investment is of relatively obvious promotion for economic growth in a short term and of certain negative effect on economic growth in a long term. Import and export have significant function for promoting economic growth and profound influence in Fujian as coastal city. On this basis, the author proposes some policies and recommendations for macroeconomic regulation and control in Fujian Province.