원문정보
초록
영어
Taking account of the influence of uncertainty, incomplete issues and common cause failure (CCF) to system reliability, a method for reliability analysis based on Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence inference and Bayesian network (BN) is proposed by using the advantage of uncertainty reasoning and figurative expression of BN. Firstly, the method to map fault tree into BN with epistemic uncertainty is presented, and the probability of top event (TE) is calculated by belief measure and plausibility measure of evidence. Moreover, by using BN, some useful information can be obtained, through which the weak parts of the system can be identified. The results demonstrate that the proposed method makes a more rational evaluation result, and it is quite valid to deal with uncertainty information in reliability analysis, which provide a reasonable guidance for system fault diagnosis and maintenance and improve the system reliability.
목차
1. Introduction
2. Description of the ATP system
2.1. Structure and function of ATP system
2.2 Fault Tree Model of ATP System
3. Theory of BN and Evidence inference
3.1. Bayesian Network
3.2. D-S Evidence Inference
3.3. BN Expansion Based on Evidence Theory
4. Common Cause Failure
5. Reliability Analysis of ATP
6. Conclusion
Acknowledgment
References