earticle

영어

This study examines empirical relevance of Ricardian equivalence hypothesis using a quantile regression model of private saving offset behavior. Panel data for 23 OECD countries over 1990~2014 were used. The heterogeneous effects of speed of aging and level of government debt were considered in the regression across distributions of private saving rate testing for possible existence of nonlinear effects. The main empirical findings are as follows: First, quantile regression results show statistically significant difference from mean regression results. Second, in high quantiles (0.7 quantile and above) of private saving rate, speed of aging and level of government debt show statistically significant impacts. That means ageing and government debt level may have a nonlinear effect on private saving, in addition to usual private saving offset in Ricardian equivalence. So effectiveness of fiscal policy measures may be further limited if population aging is fast going on and government debt goes beyond a threshold level.