earticle

영어

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm’s bankruptcy risk level. We draw upon industrial value chain theory to extract risk factors from supply chain risk perspective. On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures and relevant inbound and outbound risk factors. Then, publicly available macro economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag.