earticle

영어

Pharmaceutical logistics is closely linked to national economy and people's livelihood. As the national medicine circulation industry development outline (2011-2015) and the new Good Supply Practice’s (GSP) promulgation and implementation in China, Beijing’s pharmaceutical logistics is facing great challenge. Analyzing the current pharmaceutical logistics service capability and predicting the future medical service demand can help us responding to future changes. In this paper, we have predicted the population of Beijing, analyzing medicine consumption per capita, predicting the demand of pallet spaces of Beijing’s pharmaceutical logistics in the future by using the Crystal Ball. We have come to the conclusion: the current storage capability of pharmaceutical logistics enterprises in Beijing can meet 77% demand. In 2020, pharmaceutical logistics enterprises in Beijing require 54, 7700 pallets for storage space, increasing 9,7700 pallets for warehouse to store medicine. We also find that the population has less influence on forecasting model. The logistics technology improvement will cause forecasting model unsuitable for future situation.