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논문검색

Risk Analysis Model of Automobile Defect Based on Weibull

초록

영어

Currently, from the statistical analysis of accidents at home and abroad, the number of automobile defects and the resulting automobile accidents are very large. Obviously, the automobile defects have become one of the main factors affecting traffic safety, and risk assessment as an automobile key technical defect of risk management, the elimination of defects and reduce automobile accidents are of great significance. Through statistical study of automobile defect recall, this paper analyzes the automobile defects and its risk characteristics and the event tree analysis (ETA) method was introduced to determine the risk flow route of automobile defects. Based on thousands of automobile breakdown cases for risk probability forecast, this paper proposes a three-dimensional matrix risk assessment model of automobile defect. According to the dispersibility of automobile, a risk forecast method based on the Weibull distribution is established. The results indicate that on gathering actual failure data from after-sales service, the Weibull distribution model has a favorable applicability for forecasting risk possibility, and then apply it to auto defect in three-dimensional matrix model so as to get the overall risk level of defect automobile.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Automobile Defect and Risk Characteristics
  2.1 Automobile Defect
  2.2 Risk Characteristics
 3. Automobile Defect Risk Transfer
  3.1 Risk Transfer Process
  3.2 Risk Transmission Path
  3.3 Example Analysis
 4. Three-Dimensional Matrix Model of Automobile Defect Risk
  4.1 The Number of Defects Introduced Parameters
  4.2 Dimensional Matrix Model
 5. Weibull Distribution Model
  5.1 Establish Weibull Distribution
  5.2 Determine Weibull Distribution Parameters
 6. An Example
  6.1 Situation Of Defect
  6.2 Model Prediction
  6.3 Result Analysis
  6.4 Calculate the Overall Risk
 7. Conclusions
 References

저자정보

  • Guozhong Huang Safety science and Engineering ,University of Science and Technology Beijing, China
  • Wu Lin Safety science and Engineering ,University of Science and Technology Beijing, China
  • Qingyuan Niu Safety science and Engineering ,University of Science and Technology Beijing, China

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