earticle

영어

In 1978, China implemented economic reform and an “open-door” policy, and gradually shifted from a planned economy to a market economy. This resulted in remarkable economic growth, but sustaining that growth has resulted in sharp price fluctuation. What has caused price fluctuation under China’s conditions of rapid economic growth? Is China’s price fluctuation affected more by factors of aggregate demand (AD), or aggregate supply (AS)? Which economic policies are most effective for maintaining price stability in China? In this paper, I analyze China’s price fluctuation using structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, decompose inflation rate time-series into two components explained by aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks, and consider structural change in price fluctuation using CUSUM of squares test. The analyses demonstrate that aggregate supply shock has influenced GDP output in China, and that aggregate demand shock best explains price fluctuation. By decomposing inflation rate time-series into two components related to aggregate demand shock and aggregate supply shock, it is demonstrated that the relative weight of aggregate supply shock has grown since 1996, although the influence of aggregate demand shock on price fluctuation in China is significant. It is also proved that the structural change in price fluctuation happend in 1996 based on the CUSUM of squares test. After the global financial crisis, China experienced deflation, a factor that could impede healthy economic development. Constraining supply is not indicated as a wise measure to cope with deflation. Rather, deflation pressure can be softened by policies that realize lasting demand creation.

한국어

중국은 1978년 개혁개방정책을 시작하여 점진적으로 시장경제로 이행하면서, 비약적 경제성장과 함께 높은 물가변동을 초래하였다. 이와 같은 물가변동은 총수요 요인 또는 총공급 요인에 기인될 수 있으므로, 본 연구에서는 구조적 VAR 모형을 이용하여 물가변동의 총수요 및 총공급 요인을 구분하여 분석하였다. 분석의 주요한 결과로 총공급 충격은 산출물에 영향을 주었으며, 총수요 요인은 물가변동에 지대한 영향을 준 것으로 드러났다. 또한 물가변동의 구조적 변화는 1996년에 발생한 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 글로벌 금융위기이후 중국은 건전한 성장을 저해하는 디플레이션을 경험하였으며, 디플레이션의 완화는 공급억제정책보다는 수요창출정책이 보다 효과가 있음이 분석되었다.