earticle

영어

This paper, based on the Cointegration test, the Granger cause test, a VEC (Vector Error Correction) and VAR (Vector Autoregression) model, empirically investigates the relationship between the foreign exchange reserves, the money supply, the gross domestic product and the price levels in china. The empirical results show that there exist long-term cointegrative effects between the four variables. Changes in foreign exchange reserves will cause changes in the money supply, price level, and gross domestic product. Volatility in foreign exchange reserves will impact the money supply, the economic growth and the price level. Effective measures such as adjusting the balance of payments (BOP), improving the foreign exchange management system, strengthen the open market, deepen the reform of the exchange rate system, actively promote RMB internationalization etc. should be taken to maintain relative stability and sustainable growth of foreign exchange reserves in China.

중국어

本文综合运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、多元协整VAR模型等方法，对1994年一季度到2009年二季度中国外汇储备、货币供给、国内生产总值、物价水平等变量之间关系进行系统的实证分析。从长期来看，四个变量之间存在协整关系。从格兰杰因果检验来看，四者之间的关系非常密切，外汇储备的变动会引起货币供给、价格水平、国内生产总值的变动。中国需要采取调节国际收支、完善外汇管理体制、加强金融市场建设、深化汇率制度改革、推动人民币国际化等有效措施，保持外汇储备的相对稳定和可持续增长。