earticle

영어

China’s role in the North Korean nuclear issue has undergone major change in recent years. In the initial years of the Six-Party Talks, China’s role was central as facilitator, arbiter, and host of the diplomatic process. However, since 2007 the U.S.-North Korea bilateral relationship has been the dominant factor in Korean nuclear diplomacy, largely marginalizing China and the other three powers involved in these efforts. As a result, China has been confined principally to hosting the talks and to rubber-stamping agreements already achieved between Washington and Pyongyang. China continues to seek an uneasy balance among three vital interests: (1) ensuring peace on the peninsula; (2) fostering North Korea’s denuclearization; and (3) seeking to preserve a continued relationship with North Korea. But it has yet to develop a full strategy for reconciling these interests and managing its policy priorities. However, China has accelerated its economic and political ties with both the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Beijing therefore seems well positioned for the peninsula’s longer-term evolution, including its hopes that North Korea will ultimately move toward a more ‘‘reformist’’ orientation and a much-diminished emphasis on military power in its national strategy. China’s policy efforts on the “parallel friendships” with both DPRK and ROK suggest one major point: Beijing has been pursuing “gently” her long-term interests and influence in the Peninsular while maintaining and expanding the room of future policy options, all with a kind of almost unique patience and stamina. To these, China’s deep involvement in the international efforts to solve the North Korea nuclear problem (including her initiating and sponsoring Six-Party Talks) is also quite advantageous, because it has greatly increased the frequency and intensity of her political intercourses with both Koreas. However, dilemmas in Chinese policymaking persist, with Beijing able to influence but not control the major uncertainties, especially at least those related to North Korea’s short term political future.

한국어

북한 핵문제의 이슈에 대해 중국의 역할은 최근 몇 년간 중요한 변화를 겪어왔다. 6자 회담의 첫해엔 중국의 역할을 외교과정에서 촉진제, 중개인 및 주인이었다. 그러나 2007년 이후 북미 양자 관계는 한국 핵 외교에 지배적인 요인으로 부각되었으며, 크게 소외된 중국 그리고 이러한 노력 속에 포함된 3강은 소외되었다. 그 결과로, 중국은 대체로 그 대화들과 워싱턴과 평양 사이에서 이미 성취된 rubber-stamping협정에서 손님의 역할로 한정되어져 왔다. 중국은 3가지 주요 관심사 사이에서 쉽지 않은 균형을 찾기 위해 노력하고 있다. (1)한반도의 평화를 보증하는 것; (2)북한의 비핵화를 조장하는 것; (3)북한과의 지속되어 왔던 관계를 보전시키는 방법을 찾는 것이다.