earticle

영어

This research predicts the 12-month out-of-sample wholesale price of onion and cabbage by using price and inflow data of the Garak agricultural wholesale market from January 2004 to March 2014, and the yearly production data from Statistics Korea. The HW smoothing, ARIMA, VAR, X-12 ARIMA, and ARDL models are chosen for the analysis and their prediction power are compared. The HW smoothing, ARIMA and VAR models predicts the out-of-sample wholesale prices to range between 650 and 800 won. In the X-12 model, the wholesale prices are predicted to exceed 1000 won. For cabbage, the HW Smoothing, ARIMA, and VAR models predict the cabbage wholesale price to range between 450 and 490. The X-12 ARIMA model predicts the highest price to amount to 558 won. The ARDL model suggests that it is in September when the highest price is 780 won.